Archive for July, 2014
Wednesday, July 30th, 2014
Via Richard Gilhooly at TDsecurities:
The front-end of the curve is making new cycle highs in yield after GDP, with 2s at 58bp and 3yr notes re-testing the recent high of 1.03%. The belly has taken the brunt of the sell-off, moving 6bp after the data, including the sell-off overnight and ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Bearish Outlook From a Strategist
Wednesday, July 30th, 2014
The strength in Q2 GDP has given renewed strength to the curve flattening trades with new lows being reached in some pairs. The 5s 10s spread has narrowed to 75.3 from 76.4 prior to number. I see 5s 30s art 149.6 and that has narrowed from 152.4 minutes before release. ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Some Curvology and a Treasury Market Update
Wednesday, July 30th, 2014
Via the Good Folks at Bloomberg
WHAT TO WATCH:
* (All times New York)
Economic Data
* 7:00am: MBA Mortgage Applications, July 25 (prior 2.4%)
* 8:15am: ADP Employment Change, July, est. 230k (prior 281k)
* 8:30am: GDP Annualized q/q, 2Q, est. 3% (prior -2.9%)
* Personal Consumption, 2Q, est. 1.9% (prior 1%)
* GDP Price Index, 2Q, ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on What to Watch Today
Wednesday, July 30th, 2014
Via TDSecurities:
RUBPressure on the rouble has somewhat eased during the European trading hours, following a negative opening on the local market that pushed USD/RUB to ca. 35.85. However, at the time of writing, the pair remains some 0.2% higher over yesterday’s closing, as the new round of EU sanctions on ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Russian Risks
Wednesday, July 30th, 2014
Via Brown Brothers Harriman:
The ADP steals much of the thunder once reserved from the monthly non-farm payrolls report. The US created a net 1.4 mln jobs in H1, and the streak of 200k+ monthly gains in non-farm payrolls is expected to continue into July's report. The first estimate of Q2 ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on FX
Wednesday, July 30th, 2014
Via the good folks at Bloomberg:
IG CREDIT: Best Volume in a Month as Issuance Slows
2014-07-30 09:49:37.131 GMT
By Robert Elson
July 30 (Bloomberg) -- The final Trace count for secondary
trading was $14.1b vs $11.6b Monday and $13.8b the previous
Tuesday. It was the highest volume since $16.1b seen June 25.
* 10-DMA at $12b; ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Credit Trading Yesterday
Wednesday, July 30th, 2014
Prices of Treasury coupon securities have sagged modestly in a very quiet overnight session. One dealer reported a few minutes ago that volumes in futures were about 70 percent of normal. Today is a day with a data tsunami in the US with ADP and GDP and the FOMC announcement ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on July 30 2013 Opening
Wednesday, July 30th, 2014
This is an interesting (to me) note from Merrill Lynch Research which asserts that July brought an unusual result for bonds and equities and high yield. The firm reports that July 2014 was a month in which the yield on the two year note climbed 5 basis points and equities ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Unusual Market Alighment
Wednesday, July 30th, 2014
This is an an excellent and interesting article by Robin Harding of the Financial Times in which he discusses the reasons for low interest rates. The article jives with a piece I posted yesterday by Stephen Stanley of Pierpont Securities who posited that the potential growth rate of the economy ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Secular Stagnation
Tuesday, July 29th, 2014
I did not post anything while enjoying time in central Virginia. We passed some days in Charlottesville and then I fed my history addiction at Appomattox.
Attached is a note on GDP from Stephen Stanley at Pierpont Securities:
Looking Ahead
My pessimism so far this year regarding growth is primarily relative to the ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Back From Vacation