Archive for the ‘Uncategorized’ Category

Impending Debt Crisis

Wednesday, April 12th, 2017

Via UK Telegraph and Ambrose Evans Pritchard: The Fed has waited long enough: Debt crisis looms as dollar tipped for major spike 2017-04-12 18:58:10.454 GMTThe Fed has waited long enough: Debt crisis looms as dollar tipped for major spike By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, The Telegraph April 12 (National Post) -- ANALYSIS The world's leading currency institute is ...

Dealing With Debt

Wednesday, April 12th, 2017

Carmen Reinhart spoke yesterday at Harvard (where she teaches) and one of my contacts summarized her comments: ·         The debt overhang in Europe will act as a constraint on ECB policy and she expects no action by the ECB this year (although they will need to announce something about the current ...

FX

Tuesday, April 11th, 2017

Via Marc Chandler at Brown Brothers Harriman: Dollar Pushed Lower in Subdued Activity Geopolitical concerns continued to be elevated Oil is threatening to snap a five-day rally There is little concession built for today's $20 bln auction of US 10-year notes South Africa and Mexico report February manufacturing and industrial production The ...

FX

Monday, April 10th, 2017

Via Marc Chandler at Brown Brothers: Drivers for the Week Ahead Even though the Federal Reserve does not meet, Yellen's speech on Monday (with live and Twitter-sourced questions) will be closely monitored Economic data for the US and Europe may not be important drivers The UK reports on inflation and employment ...

Treasury Auctions This Week

Monday, April 10th, 2017

The Treasury will auction 3s 10s and 30s this week. Here is some interesting commentary from Ian Lyngen at BMO Capital markets on auction dynamic. This is an excerpt from a longer note to clients: We’ll also see the takedown of the 3s, 10s, 30s trio of Treasury auctions on an ...

Jobs Report Dissected

Friday, April 7th, 2017

Via TDSecurities: ·         The March employment report was a mixed bag on the surface, with payrolls disappointing sharply. But this apparent softness was more than offset by a significant and healthy drop in the unemployment rate and continued firming in wage pressures.                                                                                        ·         The as-expected wage growth and out-sized decline in the ...

FX

Friday, April 7th, 2017

Via Marc Chandler at Brown Brothers : Dollar Firm Ahead of Jobs Report Amidst Rising Geopolitical Risks The highlight today is the March US jobs data Geopolitical concerns are rising, but the impact on markets is unclear Canada also reports March jobs data Mexico reports March CPI, which is expected to ...

FX

Thursday, April 6th, 2017

Via Marc Chandler at Brown Brothers Harriman: Euro Resilient Despite Draghi's Dovish Signals ECB President Draghi made it clear that the market’s hawkish take on recent comments was undesirable Some points about the FOMC minutes are worth mentioning, as the Fed put a lot of focus on balance sheet issues Reserve ...

FOMC Minutes Dissected

Wednesday, April 5th, 2017

Via Stephen Stanley at Amherst Pierpont Securities: There were no Earth-shattering surprises in the March FOMC minutes, but, as usual, several useful nuances were revealed. Economic outlook Participants acknowledged that Q1 GDP was shaping up to be soft, mainly due to the soft January consumer spending figures.  However, the FOMC was broadly confident ...

Commercial Mortgages at Risk

Wednesday, April 5th, 2017

Via Bloomberg: Ratings Shopping Haunts Commercial Mortgage Bonds as Risks Rise 2017-04-05 10:00:01.0 GMT By Matt Scully and Adam Tempkin (Bloomberg) -- Only a decade ago, global investors got a hard lesson about the dangers of relying on rosy bond ratings. Now they’re getting a reminder -- this time in frothy corners of the $528 billion U.S. ...