Archive for the ‘Uncategorized’ Category


Monday, March 6th, 2017

Via Marc Chandler at Brown Brothers Harriman: Drivers for the Week Ahead The week ahead features the ECB meeting and the US February jobs report Yellen confirmed the likelihood of a rate hike on March 15 Anxiety over European politics remains elevated, but it has eased by nearly any metric one ...

Upcoming Week

Saturday, March 4th, 2017

Via Stephen Stanley at Amgerst Pierpont Securities: What a difference a week makes.  Last Monday, the market was pricing in less than 50-50 odds of a March rate hike and only 1 primary dealer economist (along with myself) was projecting a Fed move this month.  By the end of the week, ...

Yellen Speech

Friday, March 3rd, 2017

Via Stephen Stanley at Amherst Pierpont Securities: Today at 1:54 PM While the newswire headlines are perhaps a bit more emphatic than the actual text of Chair Yellen’s speech, the thrust of her guidance is supportive of a March rate hike.  She repeats the framework that she laid out in mid-February to ...

Credit Pipeline

Friday, March 3rd, 2017

Via Bloomberg: IG CREDIT PIPELINE: A Dollop of MS to Top off ~$56b Week 2017-03-03 10:57:15.569 GMT By Robert Elson (Bloomberg) -- Friday sessions YTD have not followed the 2016 mode of being live for issuance. Not clear that the MS re- opening will be the start of a return to the new normal. Last year even ...

French Polling

Friday, March 3rd, 2017

Via Bloomberg: Macron Overtakes Le Pen in France as Juppe Looms Over Fillon Bid 2017-03-03 11:31:49.221 GMT By Mark Deen and Gregory Viscusi (Bloomberg) -- Emmanuel Macron overtook the anti-euro candidate Marine Le Pen for the first time in polling for the French presidential election as the clamor grew for Republican Francois Fillon to step aside. Macron’s support ...


Friday, March 3rd, 2017

Via Marc Chandler at Brown Brothers Harriman: Yellen and Jobs Report Last Two Hurdles to US Hike The US dollar is narrowly mixed as Yellen's speech in Chicago is awaited The failure of the Fed to raise rates in March would be potentially more destabilizing than raising rates Japan reported a ...

Will Janet Panic the Shorts

Thursday, March 2nd, 2017

This is an interesting (at least to me) article from Bloomberg on the possibility that the confluence of huge shorts and an equivocating Ms Yellen might lead to a sharp turn around in bond prices. Via Bloomberg: You Should Be Nervous About Janet Yellen’s Speech: Macro View 2017-03-02 20:11:30.972 GMT By Vincent Cignarella (Bloomberg) -- ...

Data Dissection

Tuesday, February 28th, 2017

Via Stephen Stanley at Amherst Pierpont Securities: Real GDP in Q4 was slightly weaker than expected, coming in unrevised at 1.9%.  The shortfall relative to my expectations reflects the old saying “a few billion here and a few billion there, and pretty soon it adds up to real money.”  There were ...

Durable Goods

Monday, February 27th, 2017

Via Stephen Stanley at Amherst Pierpont Securities: rable goods orders in January were not far from expectations.  The January changes were a bit weaker than projected, but there were upward revisions to December that were largely offsetting.  Given how volatile this dataset typically is, the January report is close enough to ...

Index Extension

Monday, February 27th, 2017

Via a fully paid up subscriber: Bloomberg Barclays duration extension estimates as of Feb. 23 are unchanged from Feb. 15 estimates: • U.S. Treasury: 0.11yrs • U.S. Agency: 0.08yrs • U.S. Credit: 0.07yrs • U.S. Govt/Credit: 0.10yrs • U.S. MBS: 0.09yrs • U.S. Aggregate: 0.09yrs • U.S. High Yield: 0.07yrs