Archive for the ‘Uncategorized’ Category

Central Banker DNA and Other Musings

Wednesday, December 17th, 2014

I think the bottom line is that Ms Yellen does not possess the strand of DNA which allowed her predecessors to be  nebulous and ambiguous. .  Why have I gone off on a microbiology tangent? Well at her first press conference she talked about tightening six months after they finish ...

MBS

Wednesday, December 17th, 2014

Mortgages holding gains and remain 4+ to 5+ tighter to Treasuries.

Goldman on FOMC

Wednesday, December 17th, 2014

Via Goldman Sachs; Goldman Haztius On The Fed - Slightly Dovish Vs Expectations 1. Downward move in the dots, opening up the door for hikes post the middle of 2015 with the decline in the median dot and the 4th lowest dot (which we think is the fed leadership) 2. language of "closely monitoring inflation" ...

Flows

Wednesday, December 17th, 2014

One dealer reported chunky buying of 18 month to 3 year sector by asset managers. Another dealer reports hedge funds and asset managers buying the 5 year through 7 year sector outright and against back end. Yield curve reflects that flow as 5s 30s has gapped to 122 from 115.7 prior ...

More MBS

Wednesday, December 17th, 2014

In an earlier post I noted that 3s were better by 3 ticks while the rest of the stack had improved by 1 to 1+ ticks. In a very recent note another trader reports buying in 4s and 4.5s and all mortgages are now 4 ticks to 4+ ticks better ...

CPI

Wednesday, December 17th, 2014

As I noted earlier I did not focus on the CPI print this morning. I read through some research and here is the piece from TDSecurities which points out the disinflationary thrust of that report. Via Millan Mulraine at TDSecurities; A dis-inflationary thrust has re-emerged owing to the collapse in energy prices. ...

TIPS

Wednesday, December 17th, 2014

TIPS breakevens are trading well today. The 5 year break is at 118 versus 114 midday yesterday. The 10 year is at 168 versus 163 yesterday. The 30 year is at 197 currently versus 192 yesterday. I will confess I have not paid rapt attention to the CPI report released this ...

MBS

Wednesday, December 17th, 2014

Mortgages are having a fine day led by 3s which are 3 ticks tighter to Treasuries. Higher coupons are 1 to 1+ ticks better. One market maker suggested that most of what goes on this morning is position squaring ahead of the central bank.

Swap Spreads

Wednesday, December 17th, 2014

It has been some time since I wrote on other asset classes besides Treasuries. I spoke to a market maker this morning and asked him what he thought the resting position is in the street as we approach FOMC time. He commented that traders had been in paid positions but the ...

FX

Wednesday, December 17th, 2014

Via Marc Chandler at Brown Brothers Harriman: Dollar Recovers, Oil Doesn't - The US dollar's recovery that began yesterday continues today - The FOMC meeting today is the main focus; US CPI figures to be released earlier are of little consequence - Japan's trade deficit was smaller than expected, but this reflected a ...