Archive for the ‘Uncategorized’ Category

Thoughts on the Upcoming Week

Saturday, May 28th, 2016

Via Stephen Stanley at Amherst Pierpont Securities: This week is the homestretch, as a flurry of important data releases will provide Janet Yellen with the last inputs into her economic outlook speech for June 6 as well as helping to determine the FOMC’s decision on June 15.  Yellen made clear last ...

GDP Now: 2.9 Percent

Thursday, May 26th, 2016

Via the Atlanta Fed: Latest forecast: 2.9 percent — May 26, 2016 The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2016 is 2.9 percent on May 26, up from 2.5 percent on May 17. The forecast for second-quarter real gross private domestic investment ...

Data Analysis

Thursday, May 26th, 2016

Via Stephen Stanley at  Amherst Pierpont Securities: Durable goods orders surged by 3.4% in April, but the bulk of the increase came from the volatile defense and aircraft sectors.  Defense bookings had spiked from $9.6 billion to $15 billion in March so naturally I projected a pullback.  Instead, the military spending ...

FX

Thursday, May 26th, 2016

Via Marc Chandler at Brown Brothers Harriman: Dollar Softer in Consolidation Mode The US dollar is trading with a softer bias today after the momentum stalled yesterday In addition to the dollar's consolidation, the other feature continued recovery in oil prices The details of the UK's Q1 GDP were reported Qatar ...

Some Corporate Bond Stuff

Thursday, May 26th, 2016

Via Bloomberg: IG CREDIT: Best Volume in a Month Led by Client Flows 2016-05-26 10:00:15.583 GMT By Robert Elson (Bloomberg) -- Secondary IG trading ended with a Trace count of $18.8b vs $16.8b Tuesday, $16.5b the previous Wednesday. It was the highest volume trading session since $18.9b April 21. * 10-DMA $15b; 10-Wednesday moving avg $18.5b * 144a trading ...

Credit Pipeline

Thursday, May 26th, 2016

Via Bloomberg: IG CREDIT PIPELINE: Possible WBA Deal May Push Month Near $200b 2016-05-26 09:39:38.251 GMT By Robert Elson (Bloomberg) -- Many thought yesterday was set-up very well for the anticipated WBA deal and were surprised that it did not come to center stage. Today it is again possible although with a long Memorial Day weekend looming, ...

Early FX

Thursday, May 26th, 2016

Via Kit Juckes at SocGen: <http://www.sgmarkets.com/r/?id=h10997059,171e6ebf,171e6ec0&p1=136122&p2=3e131b82a3563f1923e746b746786a0f> A bit of risk aversion overnight and US real yields' advance has stopped, stopping the DXY rally at the same time. TIIPS still do a good job of helping me understand where the dollar's going and it's clear that a rapid rally can't happen while the ...

Advanced Trade Report

Wednesday, May 25th, 2016

Via Stephen Stanley at Amherst Pierpont Securities: The advance trade report for April yielded a much smaller than expected goods deficit of $57.5 billion.  The trade gap had narrowed sharply in March, as both imports and exports of goods fell sharply.  The presumption was that this reflected the timing of Chinese ...

FX

Wednesday, May 25th, 2016

Via Marc Chandler at Brown Brothers Harriman: Dollar Marks Time The EU-IMF/Greece deal is more of the same There are three highlights of the North American session today:  US trade data, the BOC decision, and DOE oil inventory data   Brazil’s Congress passed a bill that allows the government to ...

Some Corporate Bond Stuff

Wednesday, May 25th, 2016

Via Bloomberg: IG CREDIT: Volume Higher as CVX, HSBC 10Y Issues Led Trading 2016-05-25 10:16:52.176 GMT By Robert Elson (Bloomberg) -- Secondary IG trading ended with a Trace count of $16.8b vs $13.2b Monday, $15b the previous Tuesday. 10- DMA $14.8b; 10-Tuesday moving avg $18b. * 144a trading added $3.3b of IG volume vs $2.8b Monday, $2b last ...