Archive for the ‘Uncategorized’ Category

Very Long Bonds

Monday, December 5th, 2016

Via Blomberg: Treasury May Extend Maturity Before Ultra Bond Debut: Wrightson 2016-12-05 19:30:14.718 GMT By Alexandra Harris (Bloomberg) -- Treasury can increase 10Y, 30Y auctions while it works out the specifics of 50Y or 70Y offerings to get a head start on extending the average maturity of its debt, Wrightson ICAP economist Lou Crandall says in note. * ...

No Wheelbarrows Needed Here

Monday, December 5th, 2016

An excerpt from the morning note of Chris Low at FTN Financial: Venezuela, whose bold experiment with Bolivaran Socialism has resulted in terrible shortages and such rampant inflation that people have ditched wallets in favor of bags of cash and storekeepers—when they have anything to sell—have taken to weighing notes rather ...

Big Dip Down for Atlanta Fed 4th GDP Forecast

Wednesday, November 30th, 2016

Via FRBAtlanta: Latest forecast: 2.4 percent — November 30, 2016 The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2016 is 2.4 percent on November 30, down from 3.6 percent on November 23. The forecast of the combined contributions of real net exports and ...

GSEs and Incoming Trump Administration

Wednesday, November 30th, 2016

As an aside in another life circa 1990 I worked with Tim Bitsberger. He traded Long Bonds when I traded short coupon Treasuries. I guess I should have kept his name active in the rolex. (No smart phone as I am a modern Luddite!)   Via TDSecurities: PDF: https://www.tdsresearch.com/currency-rates/viewEmailFile.action?eKey=X2CIB9IV8QOADAY3R6SAQL84Z §  The GSEs have been in ...

Ross and Mnuchin Comments

Wednesday, November 30th, 2016

Via Stephen Stanley at Amherst Pierpont Securities: The Treasury market reacted this morning to a very cursory comment by Treasury Secretary nominee Steven Mnuchin that the average maturity of the debt should be extended since interest rates are likely to be low for a few more years.  This comment seems like ...

Convexity Crowd Crazed

Wednesday, November 30th, 2016

Via TDSecurites: §  Given the 50bp move higher in rates over the last few weeks, we analyze MBS convexity risks. Even though the structure of the mortgage market has changed significantly from the pre-crisis period due to Fed ownership and GSE conservatorship, we think that there are still some holders of ...

FX

Tuesday, November 29th, 2016

Via Marc Chandler at Brown Brothers Harriman: Dollar Comes Back Mostly Firmer, but Focus is Elsewhere The dollar is firmer but confined to yesterday's ranges The focus today is on OPEC, which is struggling to reach an agreement and South Korea, where the President is offering to resign to avoid impeachment ...

Some Corporate Bond Stuff

Tuesday, November 29th, 2016

Via Bloomberg: IG CREDIT: 3rd Highest Monday Volume on Record 2016-11-29 11:12:33.741 GMT By Robert Elson (Bloomberg) -- Secondary IG trading ended with a Trace count of $16.9b vs $1.6b Friday, $16.5b last Monday. It was the 3rd highest Monday session volume since record keeping began in 2005. * 10-DMA $15.6b; 10-Monday moving avg $15b * 144a trading added ...

Credit Pipeline

Tuesday, November 29th, 2016

Via Bloomberg: By Robert Elson (Bloomberg) -- Set to price today: * BPCE SA (BPCEGP) A2/A, to price $benchmark 2-part deal, via managers GS/HSBC/MS/Natix/RBC * 5Y, IPT +115 area * 10Y, IPT +140 area * Rentenbank (RENTEN) Aaa/AAA, to price $benchmark Global 5Y, via Barc/HSBC/RBC/Sco; guidance MS +32 area * In the 2 weeks following Thanksgiving 2015, $65b was ...

Just Don’t Enforce It (and Best Acronym RENT-D)

Monday, November 28th, 2016

Via WSJ: How to Kill the Volcker Rule? Don’t Enforce It Big banks hoping a Trump administration will defang one of Dodd-Frank’s most-controversial pieces News By Ryan Tracy and John Carney Nov. 28, 2016 5:30 a.m. ET   Big banks spent years railing against the so-called Volcker rule, which bars them from making wagers with ...