Archive for the ‘Uncategorized’ Category

Overnight Flows

Wednesday, April 16th, 2014

Via CRT Capital: OVERNIGHT FLOWS:  Treasuries were under pressure overnight because Chinese data was not as weak as feared and the UK showed signs of continued improvements in labor market conditions.  Overnight volumes were firm with cash trading at 100% of the 10-day moving-average, while TY came in at 11% of ...

Mark Chandler on FX

Wednesday, April 16th, 2014

Via mark Chandler of Brown Brothers Harriman: The US dollar is firmer against the yen and dollar bloc currencies, but is weaker against the euro and especially, sterling.  Sterling has been lifted by an unexpected decline in the unemployment rate to below 7%, the threshold under the previous forward guidance framework. ...

MNI Story on Possible PBOC Bond Purchases

Wednesday, April 16th, 2014

In my opening note I remarked on an MNI story on the possibility that the PBOC might buy longer maturity bonds issued by China Development Bank. Here is the full piece from MNI. Via MNI: ANALYSIS: China Bond Yields Fall On Talk PBOC To Target Curve BEIJING (MNI) - Long-term Chinese bond yields ...

April 16 2014 Opening

Wednesday, April 16th, 2014

Prices of Treasury coupon securities have executed a full volte face as robust economic data has trumped (for now) the still dangerous situation in the Ukraine. So risk is on today and bond markets are on their back foot as we prepare to trade bonds on this side of the ...

China Data Summary

Wednesday, April 16th, 2014

Good Morning. I am just gathering the data for my opening piece and came across this nice summary of data in China via TDSecurities. It covers retail sales, Industrial Production, and the long awaited GDP (weaker than previous quarter but tad better than expected). Via TDSecurities: CNY GDP rose by 7.4%/yr in ...

Merrill Lynch on Credit Markets

Tuesday, April 15th, 2014

Via Merrill Lynch Research:   Geopolitical risks weigh on credit. As our economists discuss in more details below, the Ukraine/Russia tensions intensified today. CDX IG widened about 2.5bps following the news headlines around 10 a.m., before trading tighter in the second half of the day and closing about 1bps wider relative to Monday. ...

Late Day Flows

Tuesday, April 15th, 2014

Via RBS Securities: Our Treasury flows were 2-way in 10’s by real money while there was other real money selling of 2’s, 7’s, and 30’s. Fast money was also buying 10’s. In swaps, we had fast money receiving 2y1y while we heard of MBS-linked paying 7yr away. In TIPS, we had ...

An Overnight Preview

Tuesday, April 15th, 2014

China GDP the most important data point but alot  of other data to reflect upon. Via Pierpont Securities: AUSTRALIA: Leading Economic Indicator reading for March. Slight downward tilt to the index over the last 6 months, but little sign of a major deterioration. CHINA: Tremendous data flow…and quite important as March was first ...

Treasury Market Update

Tuesday, April 15th, 2014

One dealer reporting very heavy flows in cash in belly of the curve. He has observed sellers of off the run 10s in favor of 2041 and 2042 paper. ( I believe that the actuaries have me dead out that far.) The same dealer notes that TY has outperformed 5s ...

Market Miscellany

Tuesday, April 15th, 2014

Greed and fear dominate markets and it appears that greed is morphing into fear today. The Long Bond has enjoyed a significant rally and trades at its lowest level since July 2013 when we were in the midst of the oh my God they are going to taper soon swoon. ...