Archive for the ‘Uncategorized’ Category

Only Perfect Hedge Is In a Japanese Garden

Tuesday, July 18th, 2017

This is an interesting piece from Robert Sinche at Amherst Pierpont on the changing relationship between US 10 year and Eurpean govies on a hedged basis. The US is looking less attractive.   Via Robert Sinche at Amherst Pierpont Securities: One of the persistent sources of support for US Treasury debt, particularly at ...

Delinquent CMBS Creeping Higher

Monday, July 17th, 2017

Via Bloomberg: CMBS Monthly Late-Pays Spike Most in Six Years, Still Low: Fitch 2017-07-17 15:49:57.920 GMT By Adam Tempkin (Bloomberg) -- U.S. CMBS loan delinquencies increased 22bps to 3.72% in June from 3.50% a month earlier, the largest month- over-month spike in six years, Fitch said in a statement. * This represented largest monthly increase in delinquencies since ...

Some Fed Policy Analysis

Monday, June 12th, 2017

Excellent piece via Chris Low at FTN Financial: AM Economic Comments by Chief Economist Chris Low Monday, June 12, 2017 Stocks are lower in Asia and Europe overnight and NASDAQ futures are down enough this morning to suggests Friday’s tech selloff will continue today. US 10-yr note yields were higher overnight but have fallen ...

Comments on Possible Fed Appointees

Saturday, June 3rd, 2017

Via Stephen Stanley at Amherst Pierpont Securities: The New York Times is reporting that the Trump Administration has settled on nominees for 2 of the 3 open Fed Board slots. Randall Quarles is said to be the appointee for the Vice Chair in charge of bank regulation, effectively replacing Tarullo.  His name ...

GOP Collapse in Reddest of States

Thursday, May 11th, 2017

This story is via the left wing website DailyKos (dailykos.com). I do not agree with the site's politics  but if you want a deep dive into elections it is worth a visit.   Via the DailyKos: Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest Leading Off • Special Elections: On Tuesday night, voters in two counties on the ...

Firing Comey and Trump Agenda

Wednesday, May 10th, 2017

This is an interesting collage of analyst opinions on the firing of FBI Director Comey and the impact that action will have on the Trump legislative agenda. I think the Watergate comparisons are hyperventilating hyperbole. Watergate had been a dominating  from March of 1973 and the so called Saturday Night Massacre ...

Resistance Broken

Thursday, April 13th, 2017

This is an excerpt from a piece written by Steve Feiss of Government Perspectives. The excerpt summarized dealer views on the break of resistance on the 10 year note at 2.28/2.30 and what that signals for the near term course of interest rates. If you have Twitter you can follow ...

Impending Debt Crisis

Wednesday, April 12th, 2017

Via UK Telegraph and Ambrose Evans Pritchard: The Fed has waited long enough: Debt crisis looms as dollar tipped for major spike 2017-04-12 18:58:10.454 GMTThe Fed has waited long enough: Debt crisis looms as dollar tipped for major spike By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, The Telegraph April 12 (National Post) -- ANALYSIS The world's leading currency institute is ...

Dealing With Debt

Wednesday, April 12th, 2017

Carmen Reinhart spoke yesterday at Harvard (where she teaches) and one of my contacts summarized her comments: ·         The debt overhang in Europe will act as a constraint on ECB policy and she expects no action by the ECB this year (although they will need to announce something about the current ...

FX

Tuesday, April 11th, 2017

Via Marc Chandler at Brown Brothers Harriman: Dollar Pushed Lower in Subdued Activity Geopolitical concerns continued to be elevated Oil is threatening to snap a five-day rally There is little concession built for today's $20 bln auction of US 10-year notes South Africa and Mexico report February manufacturing and industrial production The ...