Archive for the ‘Uncategorized’ Category

GDP Now

Friday, February 12th, 2016

The Atlanta Fed GDP Now model shows Q1 2016 running at 2.7 percent. Recessions are made with decidedly less sterner (economic) stuff than that. Via the Atlanta Fed: Latest forecast — February 12, 2016 The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2016 is ...

(Long) Weekend Data Preview

Friday, February 12th, 2016

Via Robert Sinche at Amherst Pierpont Securities: AUSTRALIA: Motor Vehicle sales for January follow 11 months of YOY sales gains as domestic demand growth remains solid. CHINA: Likely on Sunday evening China will release January data on both Bank Loans and the broader Aggregate Financing Activity. Comments in late January suggested that ...

Michigan Confidence Survey

Friday, February 12th, 2016

The confidence number slipped a bit in January but the more meaningful metric is the measure of inflation expectations which is now at its lowest level since inception of the survey in 1979 as expectations dropped to 2.4 from 2.7. If I were still hawking bonds to the unsuspecting I might ...

Retail Sales Recap

Friday, February 12th, 2016

Via  TDSecurities: TD SECURITIES DATAFLASH            US: Retail Sales Start 2016 on their Front Foot Retail Sales rose by a stronger-than expected 0.2% m/m in January. Measures of core sales showed an even more robust gain with a healthy breadth of spending. The prior month was also revised higher to also show a 0.2% ...

Primary Dealer Trading

Friday, February 12th, 2016

Bloomberg has an interesting article on trading of Treasuries by dealers in the broker market and with clients. The article summarizes a blog post at Liberty Street Economics which is the blog of the Federal Reserve bank of New York (at 33 Liberty Street). Via Bloomberg: Dealers Still Dominate UST Trading Despite ...

What to Watch Today

Friday, February 12th, 2016

Via the Good Folks at Bloomberg: WHAT TO WATCH: * (All times New York) * Economic Data * 8:30am: Import Price Index m/m, Jan., est. -1.5% (prior -1.2%) * Import Price Index y/y, Jan., est. -6.8% (prior -8.2%) * 8:30am: Retail Sales Advance, Jan., est. 0.1% (prior -0.1%) * Retail Sales Ex Auto, Jan., est. 0.0% (prior -0.1%) * Retail Sales ...

Cost Cutting at Oil Companies

Friday, February 12th, 2016

Via the WSJ: As crude prices slide toward $25 a barrel, many oil companies have little choice but to start making the steep cost cuts they have avoided up until now, jettisoning every well that can’t break even or isn’t needed to keep the lights on. “Folks are coming to grips with ...

Spread Levels

Friday, February 12th, 2016

An excerpt from a Bloomberg article by Bob Elson: * Bloomberg US IG Corporate Bond Index OAS at 220.0, another new wide since Jan. 2012, vs 215.0; 129.6 was 2015 low * 2014 high/low 144.7/102.3 * BofAML IG Master Index at +221, another new wide for 2015/16 and widest level since June 2012, vs +217; ...

FX

Friday, February 12th, 2016

Via Marc Chandler at Brown Brothers Harriman: Pre-Weekend Reprieve in Europe, Return of China on Monday is Worrisome - After another difficult Asian session, the capital markets have again stabilized in Europe - The eurozone expanded by 0.3% in Q4 15, as expected for a 1.5% year-over-year pace - Talk that the MOF's ...

The Doom Loop

Friday, February 12th, 2016

WSJ reporters describe the conundrum of economies which require negative rates but those same negative rates may hobble bank lending. Click here for a chart which I edited out of the article but which is a picture that as they say is worth 1000 words. Via the WSJ:   ‘Doom Loop’ Fears Cast ...